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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."